㈠ 急求10個左右關於外匯方面的參考文獻
參考什麼?參考你也贏不了
㈡ 求關於經濟方面的英文文獻以及翻譯成中文
dsa
㈢ 魏強斌翻譯的外匯交易進階哪裡有干凈的PDF版本
我這里有魏強斌的全套pdf書籍,私信我
㈣ 求幫助,翻譯一篇期貨套期保值方面的英文文獻,萬分感謝。。
在期貨市場的關注已經支付的期貨合約的套期保值有效性的研究,因為它是在解釋期貨合約成功的重要因素[約翰斯頓,塔什吉安和麥康奈爾(1989)]。誰提出的這項措施的有效性,包括作家張方(1990),Ederington(1979年),耶爾德(1987),欣,郭,
和李(1994年),拉塞爾(1987年)和納爾遜和Collins(1985)。這些措施都試圖確定在何種程度上對沖可以減少現金使用期貨合約的價格風險。在這些避險效益研究是指對投資組合的回報。特別是期貨合同可以有不同的價值觀方面的套期保值效果,這取決於措施的使用和避險工具的功能。期貨合約,他們自己,引入hedgers.Therefore風險,
在何種程度上提供了一個期貨合約的整體風險降低,是為futuresexchange管理的重要標准,以評估避險績效。其實,較小的基礎和期貨合約,更大的風險降低市場深度的風險。對於一個對沖工具對另一選擇是同時考慮後作出的風險和[Castelino,弗朗西斯替代對沖成本,沃爾夫(1991)]。本文介紹了套期保值的效率和效益的這一措施,表明了一個期貨合約(包括風險和套期保值的成本提供避險服務質量的新概念)。建議的措施是延伸和補充措施的程度,並且有不同的目的,不同的解釋,和不同的目標群體。
它評估從期貨交易所管理的角度期貨合約。期貨市場是假定為實現為客戶創造卓越的價值[Narver和Slater(1990)]易感,從而產生高交易量[黑色(1986)]。本文的目的是提供了一個措施,是能夠給到外匯期貨交易管理績效的洞察力。擬議的套期保值效率的措施的評價,與實際避險和距離完美hedge.This距離可以成為一個系統的一部分,它可以由期貨交易所管理,並隨機分成部分,
這超越了其control.Hence是,這項措施是為期貨交易所管理的有用工具,因為它使實際對沖質量進行評估。
應該是這樣吧
㈤ 經濟類論文《外匯管理與經濟發展的關系研究》英文文獻及翻譯
你的難度有些大 需要把5000字左右的英文論文並要求翻譯成中文 不過你可以去論文俱樂部看看
㈥ 急求:經濟類3000字左右英文文獻(帶翻譯更好)!~~
INTO THE STORM
FOR much of the past year the fast-growing economies of the emerging world watched the Western financial hurricane from afar. Their own banks held few of the mortgage-based assets that undid the rich world』s financial firms. Commodity exporters were thriving, thanks to high prices for raw materials. China』s economic juggernaut powered on. And, from Budapest to Brasília, an abundance of credit fuelled domestic demand. Even as talk mounted of the rich world suffering its worst financial collapse since the Depression, emerging economies seemed a long way from the centre of the storm.
過去一年的大部分時間里,高速發展的新興國家一直在遠處觀望著西方國家的金融風暴。他們的銀行僅持有少量抵押資產,而類似的資產已經破壞了發達國家的金融公司。商品出口商因為原材料的高價格而日漸富有。中國不可抗拒的經濟力量已然開啟,而且信貸刺激的內需從布達佩斯到巴西利亞都表現得非常充足。盡管大蕭條後關於西方國家受難於金融崩塌的話題與日俱增,但新興國家似乎距離金融風暴的中心還有一段距離。
No longer. As foreign capital has fled and confidence evaporated, the emerging world』s stockmarkets have plunged (in some cases losing half their value) and currencies tumbled. The seizure in the credit market caused havoc, as foreign banks abruptly stopped lending and stepped back from even the most basic banking services, including trade credits.
不過目前的情況不再是那樣了,隨著境外資本的流失和經濟信心的消失,新興國家股市暴跌(有些地區已經腰斬),本幣迅速貶值。由於外國銀行突然中斷貸款,並且收縮了包括貿易信貸在內的基礎銀行服務,新興國家的信貸市場突發混亂,並引發了一場浩劫。
Like their rich-world counterparts, governments are battling to limit the damage (see article). That is easiest for those with large foreign-exchange reserves. Russia is spending $220 billion to shore up its financial services instry. South Korea has guaranteed $100 billion of its banks』 debt. Less well-endowed countries are asking for help. Hungary has secured a EURO5 billion ($6.6 billion) lifeline from the European Central Bank and is negotiating a loan from the IMF, as is Ukraine. Close to a dozen countries are talking to the fund about financial help.
新興國家的政府和發達國家的政府一樣都在為控制損失程度而奮斗。不過對於外匯儲備充足的國家來說難度會小一些:俄羅斯斥資2200億美元重振金融服務行業;韓國政府擔保了1000億美元的銀行債務。而那些儲備並不充足的國家正在四處求援:匈牙利成功向歐洲央行求得了50億歐元(約66億美元)的生命線,同時也在同國際貨幣基金組織協商借款事宜,同時向國際貨幣基金組織求援的還有烏克蘭。近一打兒的國家在向基金組織求助。
Those with long-standing problems are being driven to desperate measures. Argentina is nationalising its private pension funds, seemingly to stave off default (see article). But even stalwarts are looking weaker. Figures released this week showed that China』s growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter-still a rapid pace but a lot slower than the double-digit rates of recent years.
有持續問題的國家正棋行險招:阿根廷正在將私人養老金國有化,意圖阻止違約的發生。即使強有力的國家也表現出虛弱一面:本周公布的數字表明今年中國的增長率在第三季度減緩為9%,雖然增速還算快,但是與近些年的兩位數增率相比緩慢了不少。
Blowing cold on credit
對信貸沒興趣
The various emerging economies are in different states of readiness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous. Most obviously, how these countries fare will determine whether the world economy faces a mild recession or something nastier. Emerging economies accounted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months. But their economic fate will also have political consequences.
眾多新興經濟的意願並不相同,但是累計在一起的影響力卻非同一般。最明顯的就是這些國家的表現將會決定世界經濟所面臨的是一個較為緩和的衰退還是更可怕的情況。在過去18個月的全球經濟增長中,新興經濟貢獻了75%。但是他們的經濟命運也會有一些政治後果。
In many places-eastern Europe is one example (see article)-financial turmoil is hitting weak governments. But even strong regimes could suffer. Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to contain social unrest. More generally, the coming strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world economy. Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today』s mess spread from the rich world, largely thanks to increasingly integrated capital markets. If emerging economies collapse-either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession-there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance.
在類似東歐的很多地區,金融混亂目前的打擊目標是軟弱的政府;但強硬的政權同樣會嘗到苦果。一些專家認為中國每年需要7%的增長率來阻止社會動盪的發生。總體來說,如此爭端必將影響全球經濟一體化的討論。與以往數次新興經濟危機不同,這次的混亂始於發達國家,很大程度上要歸咎於一體化的資本市場。一旦新興經濟崩潰,無論是貨幣危機還是劇烈的經濟蕭條,大家對於金融全球化是否屬明智之舉會有更多的質疑。
Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire. All emerging economies will slow. Some will surely face deep recessions. But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets. Good policy-both at home and in the rich world-can yet avoid a catastrophe.
幸運的是上述恐怖的場景沒有發生在全球的每個角落:所有的新興經濟都會減緩發展速度,有一些也必將面臨深度蕭條;但是更多的國家在面臨當下危機的時候卻擁有比以往任何時候都強壯的形式,用充足的儲備、彈性的貨幣和強大的預算武裝自己。新興國家及發達國家良好的政策可以避免大災難的發生。
One reason for hope is that the direct economic fallout from the rich world』s disaster is manageable. Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexico. Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse. That has a mixed effect. Although it hurts commodity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps commodity importers in Asia and reces inflation fears everywhere. Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable (see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the commodity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises.
至少有一個原因值得抱有希望:發達國家此次災難的直接經濟影響還是在可控的范圍內。歐美銳減的需求對出口來說無疑是一個打擊,特別是對亞洲和墨西哥。商品價格走低:原油價格與巔峰時期比較已經下降了60%,很多糧食和金屬類商品跌幅更大。這兩個現象有混合效果:盡管從俄羅斯到南美的商品(能源)出口企業備受打擊,但卻幫助了亞洲的商品(能源)進口商,並且緩和了各地對通脹的恐懼。委內瑞拉的情形一直很糟糕,也很脆弱;不過由於過去極度的繁榮,商品價格下跌目前還不會引發大范圍傳播的危機。
The more dangerous shock is financial. Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices decline. China』s house prices, for instance, have started falling (see article). This will dampen domestic confidence, even though consumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world. Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth. And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth.
比商品價格更令人震驚的事情發生在金融領域。由於資產價格的下降,財富水平正在被擠壓縮水。以中國房價為例,目前已經開始下跌。盡管新興國家的消費者比發達國家的負債水平低很多,上述情況還是會挫傷國內的經濟信心。在其他方面,國外銀行借款驟然匱乏、對沖基金以及其他投資者逃離債券市場,這些因素給信貸增長踩了一腳急剎車。正如發達的信貸曾經強力支撐國內支出那樣,信貸緊縮將意味著增長放緩。
Again, the impact will differ by country. Thanks to huge current-account surpluses in China and the oil-exporters in the Gulf, emerging economies as a group still send capital to the rich world. But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP. Most of these are poor countries that live off foreign aid; but some larger ones rely on private capital. For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment. A particular worry is eastern Europe, where many countries have double-digit deficits. In addition, even some countries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance. The rich world』s bank l-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow. The Institute of International Finance, a bankers』 group, expects a 30% decline in net flows of private capital from last year.
需要再次重申的是,沖擊的表現會因國家的不同而有所區別。多虧中國和海灣產油國經常項目下的巨額順差,新型經濟整體還不斷的向發達國家輸送資本。但是80 多個國家的財政赤字已經超過GDP的5%,其中的多數是那些依靠國外救助過活得貧困國家;不過也有一些依靠私人資本的大國。對於類似土耳其和南非的國家來說,突然減緩的境外融資迫使其進行大幅調整。東歐的情況特別令人擔憂,那裡的不少國家赤字水平已經達到了兩位數。另外,象俄羅斯這樣處於順差的國家,其銀行也逐漸適應了可以輕易從外國取得的貸款,原因自然是全球金融一體化。發達國家的救助計劃也許可以限制財富被擠壓的水平,但資本流向新興世界的速度無疑會減慢。國際金融研協會預測私人資本的凈流量比去年回減少30%。
A wing and a prayer
飛行之翼與祈禱者
This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe. The biggest ones are in relatively good shape. The more vulnerable ones can (and should) be helped.
信貸緊縮必將令人生畏,不過多數新興市場可以躲過一劫,最大的市場形勢還相當不錯。比較脆弱的市場可以(也應該)得到幫助。
Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-account surplus, little connection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to boost spending. Since the country』s leaders have made clear that they will do whatever it takes to cushion growth, China』s economy is likely to slow-perhaps to 8%-but not collapse. Although that is not enough to save the world economy, such growth in China would put a floor under commodity prices and help other countries in the emerging world.
在那些堅強的巨人中,中國卓然不群:手握2萬億美元的儲備,經常項下的順差狀態,與國外銀行罕有關聯,過剩的預算給推動支出留有足夠空間。鑒於國家領導人已經明確表示將不惜一切代價為經濟增長減速緩沖,中國的經濟增長應該會減緩到大約8%的水平,但是決不會崩潰。雖然這不足以挽救世界經濟,但是該增長率將會為商品價格建底並幫到新興世界的其他國家。
The other large economies will be harder hit, but should be able to weather the storm. India has a big budget deficit and many Brazilian firms have a large foreign-currency exposure. But Brazil』s economy is diversified and both countries have plenty of reserves to smooth the shift to slower growth. With $550 billion of reserves, Russia ought to be able to stop a run on the rouble. In the short-term at least, the most vulnerable countries are all smaller ones.
其他的經濟大國會受到更大的沖擊,不過應該可以禁受住風暴侵襲。印度的財政赤字巨大,巴西很多公司面臨巨大的外匯風險。但巴西經濟已經實現多樣化,同時上述兩個國家擁有充足的儲備來平穩過渡到緩慢的增長。俄羅斯掌握著5500億美元的儲備,應該能夠阻止對盧布的搶購。至少在短期內,小國家才是最弱不禁風的。
There will be pain as tighter credit forces adjustments. But sensible, speedy international assistance would make a big difference. Several emerging countries have asked America』s Federal Reserve for liquidity support; some hope that China will l them out. A better route is surely the IMF, which has huge expertise and some $250 billion to lend. Sadly, borrowing from the fund carries a stigma. That needs to change. The IMF should develop quicker, more flexible financial instruments and minimise the conditions it attaches to loans. Over the past month deft policymaking saw off calamity in the rich world. Now it is time for something similar in the emerging world.
受到緊縮信貸壓力進行的調整必然帶來痛苦,但快速的國際援助是明智之舉,因為這會讓結果很不相同。一些新興國家已經向美聯儲求援以緩解流動性問題;有一些則希望中國可以拯救他們與水火。更佳的求救路線莫過於國際貨幣基金組織,因為它掌握大量的專門知識和2500億美元的可出借款項。不幸的是人們認為向基金借款有辱其名,國際貨幣基金組織應該推出更快捷、更靈活的金融工具,同時實現借貸條件最小化。過去數月中,機敏的決策驅散了發達國家的災難。現在也正是新興世界發生類似事情的時候了。
補充:economics上的文章
㈦ 高分求翻譯(關於人民幣升值原因分析),翻譯好有追加分
好長啊`
RMB revaluation pressure from the three main aspects : the first is from the national foreign exchange transactions between the market pressure; followed by the governments to protect their own interests of the game, that is political pressure; Finally, there is pressure on the policy. China's exchange rate from the present system of international environment, the market pressure weakened but did not disappear, political pressure graally weakening, policy of pressure in the exchange rate system will become the main pressure also needs further observation. (1) Economic Analysis terms of economics, probably mainly in the following aspects of it : First, the RMB exchange rate since 1994, almost 10 years without adjustment, This 10 and the strength of China's economy has undergone profound changes. Secondly, since the 1990s, some authoritative international organizations and trade partners that the yuan has been varying degrees undervalued. Third, according to the theory of international economics, foreign exchange savings too many shows in itself that the excessively high price of foreign currency, the Renminbi is undervalued, a revaluation of the local currency pressure. Fourth, since 2001, the world's major currencies, including the currencies of Southeast Asian countries have to appreciate substantially, Only the yuan exchange rate against the dollar has not adjusted, that is, in fact yuan dollar against other currencies depreciated sharply. Not to mention the 1990s yuan devaluation is not excessive or too low pricing, say that in recent years other countries have currencies against the dollar appreciate substantially, only the yuan exchange rate against the dollar did not move. only this one, we can judge the renminbi against the dollar value may be underestimated. (2) analysis of international political and the RMB exchange rate issue is not just an economic issue, as well as international political issues. Some scholars point out that some Western countries frequently called for the revaluation of the RMB, other reasons behind. Some out of jealousy, some to divert domestic accusation of the government, it is to strive for domestic manufacturing of the vote. If Western countries simply be the value of the renminbi level with the national recession in the manufacturing sector linked to the attempted to force the revaluation of the RMB. Create job opportunities in the United States to rece the factors is not China but the global competition of the invisible hand. The foreign clamor reasons for the appreciation of the yuan confined to the following points : First, the RMB exchange rate is too low. It was proposed that it should be fixed at one U.S. dollars to 4.2 billion yuan level. Second, China's foreign exchange reserves are too high, since China's accession to the WTO, there is no surge in imports, the trade surplus has increased substantially. Three of cheap Chinese goods exported cause world deflation. It was believed that in recent years, large quantities of cheap Chinese goods exported to Japan and Europe and the United States, deflation China should make the RMB appreciation in the world economy bear corresponding responsibility. The reason why the United States put pressure on the renminbi to appreciate is that China's policy of "pegging the dollar" policy, depreciation of the dollar so that its positive effects can not brought into full play only "greatly enhanced Chinese enterprises in the export competitiveness, stimulated the export of Chinese procts, "especially in the 2002 devaluation of the dollar, The United States has a record trade deficit of 435.2 billion U.S. dollars to the historical record, trade deficit with China reached 103.1 billion U.S. dollars. In fact the United States trade deficit soaring reason does not lie in China's RMB exchange rate policy, but the United States readjustment of the instrial structure, expanding foreign direct investment, personal consumption expenditure growth and the devaluation of the dollar J-curve effect of multiple factors such as the role of the results. In recent years, China's growing economic friction, but also more confined to the micro-economic friction. After joining the WTO, China is at a stage of adjusting systems, institutional factors in China's economic development is increasingly a concern. United States, Japan and European countries put pressure on the appreciation of the RMB, the system makes economic friction in China's external economic frictions began to increase the share. RMB appreciation is the real purpose? Central government has made the decision, not because a particular reason, Unless the causes of the pressure to allow the government can not avoid or stop. I think there are three reasons : first : to resolve all the various funds and the appreciation of the renminbi expectations and pressure; 2nd : pegging to the dollar is graally emerging from the model of hard currency into yuan preparation; Third : to take this opportunity to narrowing Hong Kong dollars and renminbi exchange rate differential, achieving 1:1, and then at the appropriate time, the yuan, A Hong Kong dollars and will be integrated to form a single currency.
㈧ 各位有哪些關於外匯儲備的參考文獻!!
三、對實證結果的分析
從我國貨幣供給機制來看,目前我國基礎貨幣的投放主要通過4條渠道:一是對金融機構的再貼現和再貸款;二是外匯占款;三是對財政貸款或透支;四是央行的直接貸款。我國近年來連續呈現國際收支順差,外匯儲備規模不斷增加,使外匯占款逐漸成為基礎貨幣投放的主要渠道,這一點可從1995年匯率改革以後我國外匯占款占基礎貨幣的比重可以看出,如表4所示。
我國外匯儲備一直處於較快的增長狀態,究其原因,一方面,這和我國企業的結售匯制度有密切關系。根據我國結售匯制度規定,企業超過限額的外匯收入必須在45天內進行結匯,而用匯時須從銀行購買。對於外匯指定的銀行也只能持有額定的外匯,多餘或不足的部分通過銀行間外匯市場買賣,最終必須歸結於人民銀行。所以外匯市場並沒有體現真正的需求關系,而是由人民銀行以人民幣完全吸收外匯市場上的差額,這正是導致我國外匯儲備高速膨脹的重要原因;另一方面,我國經常項目收支和資本項目收支的持續雙順差,使得外匯市場上外匯供給大於需求,人民幣面臨巨大的升值壓力,這使得民間的外匯儲蓄頗為動盪。在2005年7月21日我國宣布匯率制度改革之後,人民幣的小幅升值更是引起了民間外匯儲蓄和存款的大量兌換,為了維持人民幣匯率的穩定,推進匯率制度的平穩改革,人民銀行只能買進剩餘的外匯,拋出相應的人民幣,從而導致基礎貨幣的進一步擴展。
外匯儲備的增加必然帶來外匯占款的增加,不斷增加的外匯占款形成了基礎貨幣的內生性增長,央行被迫投放基礎貨幣。如果此時人民銀行不採取沖銷的政策,並且在國內信貸不變的情況下,基礎貨幣的增加,通過貨幣乘數效應的作用,國內貨幣供應量將會增加。公眾手中持有的貨幣量將大於他們對貨幣需求的量,如果超額的貨幣供給沖向商品市場,商品的需求將會增加,進而推動物價水平上升。但是事實上,我國外匯儲備近年來持續、大幅增長,物價卻沒有出現暴漲,究其原因主要有:
(1)我國正處於計劃經濟向市場經濟轉軌的過程中,經濟活動不可避免地帶有計劃經濟色彩,外匯儲備和國內信貸規模都是影響基礎貨幣供應量的因素。中央銀行可以通過一手抓外匯儲備、一手抓本幣來調控國內的基礎貨幣。在我國還是有管理浮動匯率的情況下,我國外匯儲備增加能否對國內通貨膨脹形成現實壓力,還取決於中央銀行實行的國內信貸政策。當國內經濟有通脹的苗頭,央行就收緊信貸,因此,外匯儲備對通貨膨脹的影響被有意無意地弱化。
(2)外匯儲備的增加不一定導致外匯占款的增加。除國際收支順差外,外匯儲備的增加還有另外兩個渠道:來自國際金融機構、外國政府借款和儲備的收益。向國際金融機構或外國政府借入的外匯增加的儲備並不增加外匯占款,也不增加基礎貨幣。來自儲備收益的外匯儲備增加同樣也不增加外匯占款,進而不增加基礎貨幣投放。在我國的外匯儲備增量中,外匯儲備收益部分比重不高,但是,這種渠道的存在,也在一定程度上削弱了外匯儲備增加對通貨膨脹的影響。
(3)中央銀行可以通過干預基礎貨幣和貨幣乘數減弱外匯占款對貨幣投放的影響。中央銀行調整基礎貨幣結構是通過調整其資產業務投放基礎貨幣的,在外匯儲備增加的同時,央行通過減少對金融機構、政府及非金融機構的債權來抵消外匯儲備增長對貨幣投放的壓力,通過發行中央銀行票據等方式回籠貨幣。也可以通過影響貨幣乘數影響貨幣供給,比如中央銀行可以通過調整法定存款准備金影響貨幣乘數進而影響貨幣供給。由於我國利率還沒有實現完全意義上的市場化,資本項目還沒有完全開放,因而利率與資本項目之間的傳導機制受阻,這在一定程度上也減弱外匯儲備增加對通貨膨脹的影響。
總之,外匯儲備的變動會影響我國的物價水平的變動,兩者之間呈現正相關關系。從實證分析結果看到,作用系數只有0.023896。但是,外匯儲備對物價指數的影響不可忽視。這是由於我國外匯儲備的變動幅度非常大,從2001年1月的1561億美元增長到 2006年6月的9411.15億美元,增長了5倍多,而同期國內信貸和GDP僅增長一倍多。隨著我國經濟體制改革的深入,經濟體制的市場化改革也疏通了外匯儲備通過影響貨幣供應量進而影響物價的渠道。因而,外匯儲備對通貨膨脹指標的影響也會日益顯現出來。
參考文獻
[1]劉榮茂,黎開顏.我國外匯儲備對通貨膨脹影響的實證分析[J].北京:中國農業大學學報,2005,(1).
[2]封建強,袁林.我國外匯儲備增長與物價波動研究[J].北京:經濟科學,2000,(6).
[3]戴根有.我國的外匯儲備與通貨膨脹[J].北京:戰略與管理,1995,(5).
[4]閆先東,馮克然.通貨膨脹——國際收支角度的考察[J].北京:財貿經濟,1997,(4).
[5]謝平,張曉朴.貨幣政策與匯率政策的三次沖突:1994—2000年中國的實證分析[J].北京:國際經濟評論,2002,(3).
[6]邵學言,郝雁.對中國外匯儲備與物價指數之間數量關系的研究——基於貨幣供求角度的實證分析[J].北京:經濟學動態, 2004,(6).
㈨ 我需要一篇外文文獻及翻譯!關於企業財務風險防範的內容!要求字數達標、有外國作者的名字和出處。
一共兩篇 ,希望對樓主有用
什麼是財務風險
財務風險是企業在財務管理過程中必須面對的一個現實問題,財務風險是客觀存在的,企業管理者對財務風險只有採取有效措施來降低風險,而不可能完全消除風險。文章通過對企業財務風險類型分析,從中找出不同財務風險產生的具體原因,並試圖探索出解決各類財務風險的有效方法。
當今世界上因財務風險而倒閉破產的公司,甚至是特大公司也不為少見,如2002年世界500強的安然就是一例。因此,忽視財務風險將給我們帶來的後果是嚴重的。
財務風險的定義和基本類型
財務風險是指企業在各項財務活動中由於各種難以預料和無法控制的因素,使企業在一定時期、一定范圍內所獲取的最終財務成果與預期的經營目標發生偏差,從而形成的使企業蒙受經濟損失或更大收益的可能性。企業的財務活動貫穿於生產經營的整個過程中,籌措資金、長短期投資、分配利潤等都可能產生風險。
根據風險的來源可以將財務風險劃分為:
1.籌資風險
籌資風險指的是由於資金供需市場、宏觀經濟環境的變化,企業籌集資金給財務成果帶來的不確定性。籌資風險主要包括利率風險、再融資風險、財務杠桿效應、匯率風險、購買力風險等。利率風險是指由於金融市場金融資產的波動而導致籌資成本的變動;再融資風險是指由於金融市場上金融工具品種、融資方式的變動,導致企業再次融資產生不確定性,或企業本身籌資結構的不合理導致再融資產生困難;財務杠桿效應是指由於企業使用杠桿融資給利益相關者的利益帶來不確定性;匯率風險是指由於匯率變動引起的企業外匯業務成果的不確定性;購買力風險是指由於幣值的變動給籌資帶來的影響。
2.投資風險
投資風險指企業投入一定資金後,因市場需求變化而影響最終收益與預期收益偏離的風險。企業對外投資主要有直接投資和證券投資兩種形式。在我國,根據公司法的規定,股東擁有企業股權的25%以上應該視為直接投資。證券投資主要有股票投資和債券投資兩種形式。股票投資是風險共擔,利益共享的投資形式;債券投資與被投資企業的財務活動沒有直接關系,只是定期收取固定的利息,所面臨的是被投資者無力償還債務的風險。投資風險主要包括利率風險、再投資風險、匯率風險、通貨膨脹風險、金融衍生工具風險、道德風險、違約風險等。
3.經營風險
經營風險又稱營業風險,是指在企業的生產經營過程中,供、產、銷各個環節不確定性因素的影響所導致企業資金運動的遲滯,產生企業價值的變動。經營風險主要包括采購風險、生產風險、存貨變現風險、應收賬款變現風險等。采購風險是指由於原材料市場供應商的變動而產生的供應不足的可能,以及由於信用條件與付款方式的變動而導致實際付款期限與平均付款期的偏離;生產風險是指由於信息、能源、技術及人員的變動而導致生產工藝流程的變化,以及由於庫存不足所導致的停工待料或銷售遲滯的可能;存貨變現風險是指由於產品市場變動而導致產品銷售受阻的可能;應收賬款變現風險是指由於賒銷業務過多導致應收賬款管理成本增大的可能性,以及由於賒銷政策的改變導致實際回收期與預期回收的偏離等。
4.存貨管理風險
企業保持一定量的存貨對於其進行正常生產來說是至關重要的,但如何確定最優庫存量是一個比較棘手的問題,存貨太多會導致產品積壓,佔用企業資金,風險較高;存貨太少又可能導致原料供應不及時,影響企業的正常生產,嚴重時可能造成對客戶的違約,影響企業的信譽。
5.流動性風險
流動性風險是指企業資產不能正常和確定性地轉移現金或企業債務和付現責任不能正常履行的可能性。從這個意義上來說,可以把企業的流動性風險從企業的變現力和償付能力兩方面分析與評價。由於企業支付能力和償債能力發生的問題,稱為現金不足及現金不能清償風險。由於企業資產不能確定性地轉移為現金而發生的問題則稱為變現力風險。
企業財務風險的成因
企業財務風險產生的原因很多,既有企業外部的原因,也有企業自身的原因,而且不同的財務風險形成的具體原因也不盡相同。企業產生財務風險的一般原因有以下幾點:
1.企業財務管理宏觀環境的復雜性是企業產生財務風險的外部原因。企業財務管理的宏觀環境復雜多變,而企業管理系統不能適應復雜多變的宏觀環境。財務管理的宏觀環境包括經濟環境、法律環境、市場環境、社會文化環境、資源環境等因素,這些因素存在企業之外,但對企業財務管理產生重大的影響。
2.企業財務管理人員對財務風險的客觀性認識不足。財務風險是客觀存在的,只要有財務活動,就必然存在著財務風險。然而在現實工作中,許多企業的財務管理人員缺乏風險意識。風險意識的淡薄是財務風險產生的重要原因之一。
3.財務決策缺乏科學性導致決策失誤。財務決策失誤是產生財務風險的又一主要原因。避免財務決策失誤的前提是財務決策的科學化。
4.企業內部財務關系不明。這是企業產生財務風險的又一重要原因,企業與內部各部門之間及企業與上級企業之間,在資金管理及使用、利益分配等方面存在權責不明、管理不力的現象,造成資金使用效率低下,資金流失嚴重,資金的安全性、完整性無法得到保證。這主要存在於一些上市公司的財務關系中,很多集團公司母公司與子公司的財務關系十分混亂,資金使用沒有有效的監督與控制。
化解財務風險的主要措施
企業財務風險是客觀存在的,因此安全消除財務風險是不可能的,也是不現實的。對於企業財務風險,只能採取盡可能的措施,將其影響降低到最低的程度。
1.化解籌資風險的主要措施:
當企業的經營業務發生資金不足的困難時,可以採取發行股票、發行債券或銀行借款等方式來籌集所需資本。
2.化解投資風險的主要措施:
從風險防範的角度來看,投資風險主要應該通過控制投資期限、投資品種來降低。一般來說,投資期越長,風險就大,因此企業應該盡量選擇短期投資。而在進行證券投資的時候,應該採取分散投資的策略,選擇若干種股票組成投資組合,通過組合中風險的相互抵消來降低風險。在對股票投資進行風險分析中,可以採用β系數的分析方法或資本資產定價模型來確定不同證券組合的風險。β系數小於1,說明它的風險小於整個市場的平均風險,因而是風險較小的投資對象。
3.化解匯率風險的主要措施:
(1)選擇恰當合同貨幣。在有關對外貿易和借貸等經濟交易中,選擇何種貨幣作為計價貨幣直接關繫到交易主體是否將承擔匯率風險。為了避免匯率風險,企業應該爭取使用本國貨幣作為合同貨幣,在出品、資本輸出時使用硬通貨,而在進口、資本輸入時使用軟通貨。同時在合同中加列保值條款等措施。
(2)通過在金融市場進行保值操作。主要方法有現匯交易、期貨交易、期匯交易、期權交易、借款與投資、利率—貨幣互換、外幣票據貼現等。
(3)對於經濟主體在資產負債表會計處理過程中產生的折算風險,一般是實行資產負債表保值來化解。這種方法要求在資產負債表上以各種功能貨幣表示的受險資產與受險負債的數額相等,從而使其折算風險頭寸為零,只有這樣,匯率變動才不致帶來折算上的損失。
(4)經營多樣化。即在國際范圍內分散其銷售、生產地及原材料來源地,通過國際經營的多樣化,當匯率出現變化時,管理部門可以通過比較不同地區生產、銷售和成本的變化趨利避害,增加在匯率變化有利的分支機構的生產,而減少匯率變化不利的分支機構的生產。
(5)財務多樣化。即在多個金融市場以多種貨幣尋求資金的來源和資金去向,實行籌資多樣化和投資多樣化,這樣在有的外幣貶值,有的外幣升值的情況下,公司就可以使絕大部分的外匯風險相互抵消,從而達到防範風險的目的。
4.化解流動性風險的主要措施:
企業的流動性較強的資產主要包括現金、存貨、應收賬款等項目。防範流動性風險的目的是在保持資產流動性的前提下,實現利益的最大化。因此應該確定最優的現金持有量、最佳的庫存量以及加快應收賬款的回收等。我們都很清楚持有現金有一個時間成本的問題,手中持有現金過多,顯然會由於較高的資金佔用而失去其他的獲利機會,而持有現金太少,又會面臨資金不能滿足流動性需要的風險。因此企業應該確定一個最優的現金持有量,從而在防範流動性風險的前提下實現利益的最大化。
5.化解經營風險的主要措施:
在其他因素不變的情況下,市場對企業產品的需求越穩定,企業未來的經營收益就越確定,經營風險也就越小。因此企業在確定生產何種產品時,應先對產品市場做好調研,要生產適銷對路的產品,銷售價格是產品銷售收入的決定因素之一,銷售價格越穩定,銷售收入就越穩定,企業未來的經營收益就越穩定,經營風險也就越小。
The Infrared Technology as the humanity knew that the nature, the exploration natural one kind of new modern tool, has been applied generally by various countries in the biology, the medicine, the geoscience and so on scientific field as well as the military reconnaissance aspect. But is very complex as a result of the goal infrared radiation, the factor are many, the infrared hot image's clarity is inferior to the visible image far, but people in use infrared hot chart analysis question time, hoped frequently simultaneously sees the visible light information and the infrared information. As the computer vision domain and an image understanding's important technology, the image fusion simultaneously observed the infrared hot information and the visible light information for the people have provided an effective method. This article research mainly take the infrared imagery and the visible light image as the information processing goal, through will carry on the contrastive analysis to each image fusion processing method, will summarize an effect good method, will then use with the matlab procere to realize these methods and to carry on the comparison again to the fusion effect. this article first introced the image fusion engineering research background and the domestic and foreign research tendency. Then introced the image fusion's basic concept, the level, have made the comparison to each level's fusion. Then introced the image fusion's Pyramid algorithm, and has carried on the analysis, the comparison to these algorithms, finally the matlab procere has realized these methods. as a result of the wavelet transformation in the information analysis and the information processing domain's good performance, this article used the great length to introce that the wavelet the knowledge, realized the image fusion with the fusion effect good small wave packet's method, through used the objective indicator the appraisal to prove based on the small wave packet's fusion was one very good fusion method. key word: Image fusion, wavelet transformation Pyramid algorithm, multi-resolution analysis, fusion rule, fusion appraisal
從分析財務風險入手,闡述其含義、特徵以及種類等內容;在此基礎上對財務風險產生的原因進行深入細致的分析研究,分析總結出財務風險產生的內因和外因諸方面;從而提出樹立風險意識,建立有效的風險防範機制;建立和完善財務管理系統,以適應財務管理環境變化;建立財務風險預警機制,加強財務危機管理;提高財務決策的科學化水平,防止因決策失誤而產生的財務風險;通過防範內部制度,建立約束機制來控制和防範財務風險五個方面的財務風險防範措施以及自我保險、多元化風險控制、風險轉移、風險迴避、風險降低五種技術方法。只有控制防範和化解企業財務風險,才能確保企業在激烈的市場競爭中立於不敗之地。
財務風險的成因
(一)外部原因
1、國家政策的變化帶來的融資風險。一般而言,由於中小企業生產經營不穩定。一國經濟或金融政策的變化,都有可能對中小企業生產經營、市場環境和融資形式產生一定的影響。從2007 年開始,我國加大了對宏觀經濟的調控力度,央行第四次提高存款准備金率,尤其是實行差額准備金制度使直接面向中小企業服務的中小商業銀行信貸收緊,中小企業的資金供給首先受阻,融資風險徒增不少,中小企業也因無法得到急需資金而被迫停產或收縮經營規模。2、銀行融資渠道不流暢造成的融資風險。企業資金來源無非是自有資金和對外融資兩種方式。在各種融資方式中,銀行信貸又是重要的資金來源,但是銀行在國家金融政策以及自身體制不健全等情況的影響下,普遍對中小企業貸款積極性不高,使其貸款難度加大,增加了企業的財務風險。
(二)內部原因1、盲目擴張投資規模。有相當一部分的中小企業在條件不成熟的情況下,僅憑經驗判斷片面追求公司外延的擴大,忽略了公司內涵和核心競爭力,造成投資時資金的重大浪費。2、投資決策失誤。對企業來說,正確的產業選擇是生存發展的戰略起點。但一些企業在選擇產業過程中,往往忽視了「產業選擇是一個動態過程」的觀念,不能敏銳地把握產業演變的趨勢和方向。3、投資合作夥伴選擇不當。企業在做出投資決策時,一定要充分考慮合作夥伴的資質、信譽,並應具備承擔相應風險能力。4、誠信不足。中小企業信用不足是一個普遍現象。因此,銀行要向中小企業提供貸款或投資人要向中小企業進行投資就不得不加大人力資源的投入以提高信息的收集和質量分析。這一方面加大了銀行或投資人的貸款和投資成本。另一方面也給中小企業的融資帶來困難。能否融通到資金,能融通到多少資金,中小企業的融資存在很大的不確性。
1 the meaning of financial risk
Ye at "small and medium-sized financial risk assessment and control of research" that the financial risk is the possibility of corporate insolvency and shareholders, the proceeds of uncertainty, it is difficult because of enterprise funds, to adopt a different mode of financing brought about by risk.
Starting from the analysis of financial risk on its meaning, characteristics and types of content; at this based on the causes of the financial risk to conct in-depth analysis and detailed research, analysis concludes that the financial risks arising from internal factors and external aspects; in turn, establish a risk awareness, the establishment of an effective risk prevention mechanism; set up and improve the financial management system to meet the financial management of environmental change; set up the financial risk early warning mechanism, strengthen the financial crisis management; improve the scientific level of financial decision-making to prevent e to poor decisions arising from the financial risk; through internal systems to prevent the establishment of binding mechanisms to control and guard against financial risk in five areas of financial risk prevention measures as well as self-insurance, diversification of risk control, risk transfer, risk averse, risk recing the five techniques. Only controlled enterprises to guard against and defuse financial risks, in order to ensure that enterprises in the fierce competition in the market in an invincible position.
The causes of the financial risks
(A) external causes
1, the national policy changes brought about by the financing risk. Generally speaking, small and medium-sized proction and operation because of instability. A country's economy or monetary policy changes, there may be small and medium-sized proction and management, market conditions and financing forms have a certain impact. Beginning in 2007, our country has increased the intensity of macroeconomic regulation and control, the central bank to raise the fourth time the deposit reserve ratio, in particular, are ready to implement the difference between a direct deposit system to make small and medium-sized service-oriented small and medium-sized commercial banks to tighten credit, SMEs First of all, the capital supply disruption, the risk of inviting a lot of financing, SMEs also in urgent need of funds can not be forced to stop proction or the scale of downsizing. 2, bank financing channels for non-financial risks caused by fluid. Corporate sources of funds are nothing more than its own funds and external financing in two ways. In various modes of financing, the bank credit is also an important source of funds, but banks in the country's financial policies as well as their own sound system is not under the influence of such circumstances, the general enthusiasm for SME lending is not high, their loans more difficult to increase the the enterprise's financial risk.
(B) internal factors one, blind expansion of investment scale. There is a considerable number of conditions are not ripe for the SMEs in the circumstances, only the experience of one-sided pursuit of companies to determine the expansion of the extension, ignore the company's content and core competitiveness, resulting in a major capital investment wasted. 2, the investment decision-making errors. For business, the correct selection of instries are the starting point for the survival and development strategy. However, some instrial enterprises in the selection process, the often overlooked "instry is a dynamic selection process" concept, should not a keen grasp of instry trends and direction of evolution. 3, improper selection of investment partners. Enterprises to make investment decisions, we must give full consideration to qualified partners, reputation, and should have to bear the corresponding risks. 4, less than honest. Lack of SME credit is a common situation. Therefore, small and medium-sized banks to provide loans or investments to small and medium-sized people had to step up investment on human resources in order to improve the quality of information collection and analysis. This respect has increased the investment bank or person lending and investment costs. On the other hand also give small and medium enterprises financing difficult. Ability to finance capital, to finance the number of funds, the financing of SMEs exist great uncertainties.
㈩ 我需要一篇外文文獻及翻譯!關於企業財務風險防範的內容!要求字數達標、有外國作者的名字和出處
1 the meaning of financial risk
Ye at "small and medium-sized financial risk assessment and control of research" that the financial risk is the possibility of corporate insolvency and shareholders, the proceeds of uncertainty, it is difficult because of enterprise funds, to adopt a different mode of financing brought about by risk.
Starting from the analysis of financial risk on its meaning, characteristics and types of content; at this based on the causes of the financial risk to conct in-depth analysis and detailed research, analysis concludes that the financial risks arising from internal factors and external aspects; in turn, establish a risk awareness, the establishment of an effective risk prevention mechanism; set up and improve the financial management system to meet the financial management of environmental change; set up the financial risk early warning mechanism, strengthen the financial crisis management; improve the scientific level of financial decision-making to prevent e to poor decisions arising from the financial risk; through internal systems to prevent the establishment of binding mechanisms to control and guard against financial risk in five areas of financial risk prevention measures as well as self-insurance, diversification of risk control, risk transfer, risk averse, risk recing the five techniques. Only controlled enterprises to guard against and defuse financial risks, in order to ensure that enterprises in the fierce competition in the market in an invincible position.
The causes of the financial risks
(A) external causes
1, the national policy changes brought about by the financing risk. Generally speaking, small and medium-sized proction and operation because of instability. A country's economy or monetary policy changes, there may be small and medium-sized proction and management, market conditions and financing forms have a certain impact. Beginning in 2007, our country has increased the intensity of macroeconomic regulation and control, the central bank to raise the fourth time the deposit reserve ratio, in particular, are ready to implement the difference between a direct deposit system to make small and medium-sized service-oriented small and medium-sized commercial banks to tighten credit, SMEs First of all, the capital supply disruption, the risk of inviting a lot of financing, SMEs also in urgent need of funds can not be forced to stop proction or the scale of downsizing. 2, bank financing channels for non-financial risks caused by fluid. Corporate sources of funds are nothing more than its own funds and external financing in two ways. In various modes of financing, the bank credit is also an important source of funds, but banks in the country's financial policies as well as their own sound system is not under the influence of such circumstances, the general enthusiasm for SME lending is not high, their loans more difficult to increase the the enterprise's financial risk.
(B) internal factors one, blind expansion of investment scale. There is a considerable number of conditions are not ripe for the SMEs in the circumstances, only the experience of one-sided pursuit of companies to determine the expansion of the extension, ignore the company's content and core competitiveness, resulting in a major capital investment wasted. 2, the investment decision-making errors. For business, the correct selection of instries are the starting point for the survival and development strategy. However, some instrial enterprises in the selection process, the often overlooked "instry is a dynamic selection process" concept, should not a keen grasp of instry trends and direction of evolution. 3, improper selection of investment partners. Enterprises to make investment decisions, we must give full consideration to qualified partners, reputation, and should have to bear the corresponding risks. 4, less than honest. Lack of SME credit is a common situation. Therefore, small and medium-sized banks to provide loans or investments to small and medium-sized people had to step up investment on human resources in order to improve the quality of information collection and analysis. This respect has increased the investment bank or person lending and investment costs. On the other hand also give small and medium enterprises financing difficult. Ability to finance capital, to finance the number of funds, the financing of SMEs exist great uncertainties.